Managing Downswings
Market Update: Tuesday, July 7th 2026
Sports Betting
Alrighty. The sports betting experiment is in a sizable downswing. A chunky -$100K from the peak.
In the grand scheme of things, this is not unheard of. A few thoughts:
Bet sizing increased much faster than PNL. I added multiples more risk capital to back the strategy compared to when it started.
Just 3 months ago, average bet size was a few hundred bucks to a few $K. Past 2 weeks it’s been $5-10K bet sizes.
Had a ton of run bad, or bad luck, in the past week. Back-to-back 50% → 99% → 0% bets. Happens. I would still slam a majority of these bets again. And I will, probably with more $, because these spots are reoccurring and we know how to find them.
It is unfortunate that run bad and sizing up the strategy happened at the same time. Happens.
Luckily, this is all a fun in-house experiment that’s backed by mostly my personal money. It’s only been 3 months and there’s still so much more betting to do.
I will likely be far more selective with the spots I push $ on, because at this point we’ve seen so many spots, that I want to only pick the best. That could mean long stretches of dry periods, and then all of a sudden within a weekend or a week, a ton of $ pushed. That’s just the nature of how these events work.
All in all, things are great. I’ve had far, far worse downswings. This isn’t much in the grand scheme of things. What’s more important is the methodology and systematizing done, because that will generate more $ in the future.
Stocks
No Scope prints.
The narrative this week was that AI infra trade took a hit because Meta got into selling compute. The irony of this is that Meta announced they’re building a compute desk on January 15th, 2026. So. It’s just headlines doing what headlines do — making shit up.
Is it over? I don’t know, but I do think that 80% margins on memory cannot last long.
There hasn’t been anything exciting happening for us with stocks, maybe other than the GRPN trade, because we haven’t been heavily invested in the AI infra trade.
We’re META MSFT AMZN and SaaS bulls. It’s been not great to be that. But the book is up on those names in the past week (more than enough to cover sports betting losses 😁), so maybe things might actually rotate there. That’s our current plan for capturing returns, because they’re so sold off and we believe AI is not gonna kill SaaS.
Crypto
Crypto prices have rebounded a bit. But I will not be fooled. It has done this all the time throughout the past year to eventually fall more. I am still strongly subscribed to the 4 year cycle thesis. People thought that I was joking on my last update regarding that. So that makes me more bullish that it might actually play out that way. We’ll see.
If you have any thoughts or questions about our trading, please reach out to me.
Tons of money to be made.
Nik
Founder of Yai Capital
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